Dec 5, 2023
In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, you'll join host Melina Palmer as she dives into the fascinating topic of the planning fallacy. Melina shares her personal experiences with underestimating the time it takes to complete tasks and projects, revealing that even she, an expert in the field, is not immune to this cognitive bias. But fear not, because Melina also provides valuable strategies to combat the planning fallacy and improve your planning accuracy.
From seeking external perspectives to breaking tasks into smaller steps, she offers practical advice that you can implement in your own life. Whether you struggle with accurately estimating time or simply want to enhance your productivity, this episode is a must-listen. So get ready to tackle the planning fallacy head-on and start maximizing your time and efficiency.
In this episode:
00:00:00 - Introduction,
Melina introduces the concept of planning fallacy and explains how
it affects our ability to estimate the time and effort required for
tasks. She also mentions her upcoming conversation with Nick
Sonnenberg and how his book, Come Up for Air, inspired her to
refresh this episode.
00:02:16 - The Foundations of Planning Fallacy
Melina discusses how planning fallacy was first introduced by
Kahneman and Tversky in 1979. They found that errors in judgment
were systematic and not random, indicating a bias in the brain.
Planning fallacy affects all kinds of people, even experts, and it
can be difficult to overcome.
00:05:05 - Why We Fall Victim to Planning Fallacy
Melina explains that the brain is naturally inclined to focus on
success and underestimate the possibility of failure. We tend to
believe that things will go smoothly and that we can do it all,
leading to unrealistic expectations and missed deadlines. Even
having deadlines and incentives doesn't necessarily help.
00:08:54 - Biases Contributing to Planning Fallacy
Melina discusses several biases and brain tricks that contribute to
planning fallacy, including the focusing illusion and fundamental
attribution error. The focusing illusion causes us to allocate
different amounts of time based on what we're currently focused on,
while fundamental attribution error leads us to attribute external
or internal factors incorrectly.
00:15:57 - The Myth of 8 Hours of Writing
Writing for 8 hours straight is not actually 8 hours of writing.
Taking breaks and getting distracted reduces the actual writing
time. A suggested technique is to write for 25 minutes and then
take a 5-minute break, repeating this cycle. This helps to combat
planning fallacy and increase productivity.
00:17:43 - The Impact of Distractions and Breaks
Distractions and breaks, such as emails and unexpected projects,
further decrease writing time. Considering these interruptions, a
planned 8-hour writing day may result in only 4.5 hours of actual
writing. This means that the anticipated 32 pages would be reduced
to only 18.
00:19:47 - Planning for Worst Case Scenario
To overcome planning fallacy, it is crucial to plan for the worst
case scenario. By allocating a realistic amount of time for
productive writing and acknowledging potential distractions, you
can avoid beating yourself up over unmet expectations. Celebrate
achieving your planned writing time.
00:21:51 - Urgent vs Important Tasks
The urgent vs important grid helps prioritize tasks. Determine if a
task is important, urgent, both, or neither. This framework helps
in dismissing distractions by asking if they are truly important
and urgent compared to the planned task. Planning for distractions
helps stick to timelines and overcome planning fallacy.
00:31:48 - Understanding the Planning Fallacy
Launching a podcast involves various tasks that may seem quick and
easy on the surface. However, breaking them down into subtasks
reveals the true complexity of the process. Properly allocating
time and planning for each subtask can help reduce stress and
ensure completion without overcommitting.
00:33:48 - The Power of Unpacking
Unpacking tasks into their smallest subcomponents is essential for
complex projects like launching a podcast. Simple tasks may not
benefit as much from unpacking, but for larger projects, it helps
in understanding the full scope and allocating sufficient time for
each task.
00:34:27 - Overcoming Planning Fallacy
Planning fallacy is a natural tendency that affects everyone. Being
aware of this tendency and using the tips mentioned in the episode
can help overcome it. Having a trusted friend or colleague to keep
you in check is also crucial in avoiding overcommitment and
excessive work.
00:35:11 - Personal Experience with Planning Fallacy
Melina admits to constantly struggling with planning fallacy
despite her knowledge of it. However, understanding its existence
and finding ways to manage it can prevent continuous overcommitment
and excessive work.
00:36:22 - Conclusion,
Melina's top insights from the conversation. What stuck with you
while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come
share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as
@thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn.
Thanks for listening. Don’t forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.
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